Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.015539 0.017587 0.019820 0.022440 0.025433 0.028748 0.032705
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.012529 0.015364 0.018729 0.023030 0.028400 0.034908 0.043428
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.010906 0.014104 0.018121 0.023561 0.030778 0.040077 0.053059
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009452 0.012758 0.017101 0.023266 0.031858 0.043503 0.060645
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008369 0.011717 0.016290 0.023050 0.032884 0.046812 0.068294
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007512 0.010863 0.015602 0.022865 0.033843 0.050023 0.076053
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007014 0.010451 0.015472 0.023431 0.035903 0.054986 0.086940
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006389 0.009779 0.014874 0.023200 0.036678 0.058010 0.095056
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006083 0.009556 0.014923 0.023958 0.039056 0.063761 0.108236
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005484 0.008811 0.014080 0.023180 0.038817 0.065164 0.114128
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005041 0.008277 0.013521 0.022807 0.039199 0.067611 0.122068
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004563 0.007640 0.012735 0.021965 0.038665 0.068379 0.126985
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004412 0.007552 0.012877 0.022773 0.041188 0.074936 0.143702
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004235 0.007404 0.012904 0.023380 0.043408 0.081182 0.160632
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004063 0.007249 0.012899 0.023920 0.045541 0.087467 0.178397
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003787 0.006879 0.012473 0.023620 0.046009 0.090528 0.189824
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003547 0.006558 0.012109 0.023400 0.046604 0.093888 0.202277
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003333 0.006268 0.011777 0.023212 0.047236 0.097374 0.215417
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003229 0.006179 0.011824 0.023787 0.049510 0.104551 0.237833
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003040 0.005909 0.011493 0.023552 0.050026 0.107963 0.251872
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002974 0.005877 0.011636 0.024323 0.052809 0.116696 0.279833
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002752 0.005515 0.011075 0.023532 0.052022 0.117212 0.287525
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002589 0.005259 0.010718 0.023153 0.052134 0.119823 0.300847